Executive Summary

Q3 revenue of $19.6M and GAAP EPS of $(0.44) significantly missed S&P Global consensus ($28.6M revenue, $(0.37) EPS) as U.S. EOCL reductions (~$4M impact in Aug–Sep) and budget uncertainty weighed on results; management maintained FY25 guidance and pointed to a strong, contract-driven Q4 pipeline . Revenue/EPS estimates from S&P Global: $28.6M and $(0.371)*.
International traction accelerated: >$60M in new awards, backlog $322.7M with ~91% international; management said international now ~50% of revenue and will likely outpace U.S. into 2026 .
Liquidity strengthened: $147.6M cash plus $43.4M unbilled contract assets and $13.5M launch financing (> $200M total liquidity), supporting Gen‑3 deployment and path to positive free cash flow .
Stock reaction catalyst: a large top-line miss coupled with unchanged full-year guidance shifts focus to Q4 deal closures (timing risk) and international sovereign wins; EOCL restoration in the final U.S. budget is an upside swing factor .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- “Strong international demand… drove over $60 million in new contract awards,” including a >$30M multi‑year tactical ISR integration for a strategic international defense customer .
- Early Gen‑3 commercial traction: new U.S. government seven‑figure Gen‑3 imagery contract; expanding early‑access cohort; next Gen‑3 at launch site .
- AI/analytics momentum: seven‑figure Luno delivery order (≈$30M YTD on Luno) and expanding sovereign solutions pipeline; management reiterated confidence in high‑visibility 2026 growth .
What Went Wrong
- U.S. EOCL reductions cut Q3 revenue by ~$(4)M (Aug–Sep), driving the miss; reductions expected to carry into Q2 of next year pending final budget .
- Profitability deteriorated: Adjusted EBITDA fell to $(4.5)M (vs $0.7M in Q3’24), and cost of sales mix worsened to 35% of revenue (vs 29% LY) .
- Minor launch delay: a faulty component found in a Gen‑3 satellite during final testing led to slippage (non‑systemic), underscoring execution sensitivity during ramp .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Operating Metrics (USD)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)	$29.544	$22.199	$19.618
GAAP EPS	$(0.42)	$(1.27)	$(0.44)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$(0.617)	$(2.817)	$(4.484)
Cost of Sales (% of Revenue)	43%	28%	35%
Cash Operating Expenses ($M)	$18.930	$19.396	$18.283

Versus S&P Global Consensus (USD)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue – Actual	$29.544*	$22.199*	$19.618*
Revenue – Consensus	$27.201*	$22.171*	$28.633*
Revenue Surprise ($)	+$2.343*	+$0.028*	−$8.,?
EPS – Actual	$(0.346)*	$(0.397)*	$(0.429)*
EPS – Consensus	$(0.552)*	$(0.448)*	$(0.371)*
EPS Surprise ($)	+$0.206*	+$0.051*	−$0.058*
# Estimates (Rev / EPS)	10 / 8*	7 / 8*	9 / 7*

Note: Q3 showed a significant miss on revenue and EPS; Q1–Q2 were modest beats. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Revenue (USD)

Segment	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Imagery & Software Analytical Services	$16.829M	$17.982M	$15.782M
Professional & Engineering Services	$12.715M	$4.217M	$3.836M
Total Revenue	$29.544M	$22.199M	$19.618M

KPIs and Balance Sheet Snapshot (Q3 2025 unless noted)

KPI	Value
Backlog	$322.7M; ≈91% international
Cash, Restricted Cash, Short-term Investments	$147.6M
Unbilled Contract Assets	$43.4M (≈$36M within 12 months)
Available Launch Financing	$13.5M
Total Liquidity	>$200M
Satellites On Orbit	13 (2 Gen‑3, 11 Gen‑2)
Q3 Capex / YTD Capex	$15.0M / $33.9M

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY 2025	$105M–$130M (updated Jul/Q2)	Maintained (range unchanged)	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	Breakeven–$10M	Maintained	Maintained
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	$60M–$70M	Maintained	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
International demand & sovereign solutions	Q1: >$130M bookings incl. >$100M 7‑yr international sub; India deals . Q2: backlog $356M (~85% international); early access expanding .	>$60M Q3 awards; backlog $322.7M (~91% international); revenue now ~50% international .	Up
U.S. EOCL/budget exposure	Q2 FY25 guidance reset partly due to U.S. budget timing .	~$4M Q3 impact; reductions set through Q2 next year; potential restoration in final budget .	Headwind persists (with potential upside)
Gen‑3 deployment cadence	Q1: first Gen‑3 commissioned; second shipping . Q2: second launched; third in testing; six planned 2025 .	Next at launch site; target ≥12 by end of next year; minor delay fixed (non‑systemic) .	On track; minor delays
AI/analytics traction	Q1: AI on Gen‑3 exceeding expectations . Q2: Luno A award up to $24M .	Seven‑figure Luno order (≈$30M YTD); growing AI-enabled tactical ISR solutions .	Strengthening
Liquidity/capital	Q1 cash $77M (incl. $32M prepay) . Q2: $185M convert; pro forma >$170M cash .	Cash $147.6M; total liquidity >$200M for Gen‑3 deployment and FCF path .	Improved

Management Commentary

“Strong international demand for our space-based intelligence solutions drove over $60 million in new contract awards… With strong international demand, the success of Gen‑3… we are anticipating a strong Q4 and expect to take that momentum into 2026.” — CEO Brian O’Toole .
“We ended the third quarter of 2025 with $147.6 million of cash, restricted cash, and short‑term investments… Together with $13.5 million of available launch financing, this brings our total liquidity position to over $200 million.” — CFO Henry Dubois .
“Over 90% of our backlog is related to international contracts for Gen‑3 capabilities.” — CEO Brian O’Toole .
“Our revenue was negatively impacted in August and September by approximately $4 million due to reductions made in the EOCL contract.” — CFO Henry Dubois .

Q&A Highlights

Gen‑3 cadence and fleet: 13 satellites on orbit (2 Gen‑3/11 Gen‑2); “two per quarter” is a reasonable cadence; goal “at least 12 [Gen‑3] up by the end of next year” .
Q4 drivers: historically strong Q4; wide guide range reflects deal timing; primarily international contracts; not dependent on near‑term satellite launches .
EOCL: not paused; reductions reflect draft FY26 baseline; expected to carry into Q2 next year, with potential upside if Congress restores funding .
Mix and pricing: revenue now ~50% international vs ~60/40 U.S./intl a year ago; Gen‑3 contracts tending larger and multi‑year vs Gen‑2 .
Early access: six‑figure early access agreements converting to larger, longer‑term subs as constellation builds out .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 vs S&P Global: Revenue $19.618M vs $28.633M*, EPS $(0.429) vs $(0.371)* — both meaningful misses. Q2 modestly beat revenue and EPS; Q1 beat on both. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implication: Consensus for Q4/FY may need to re‑anchor around management’s maintained range, with sensitivity to timing of international contract closures and any EOCL restoration .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q3 miss was driven by U.S. EOCL reductions and budget uncertainty, not demand weakness; international sovereign demand is accelerating and now ~50% of revenue with 90%+ of backlog international .
Management reiterated a strong Q4 and maintained FY25 guidance ($105–$130M revenue; breakeven–$10M adj. EBITDA; $60–$70M capex), making near‑term execution on closures the key stock driver .
Gen‑3 remains the strategic engine: near‑term cadence continues, with ≥12 satellites targeted by end of next year; early‑access programs are converting to multi‑year subs .
Liquidity (> $200M) provides runway to deploy Gen‑3, scale AI, and progress EROS, reducing financing overhang and supporting the FCF path .
U.S. budget risk persists (EOCL reductions through Q2 next year), but potential restoration presents upside; keep watch on final budget outcomes .
Mix shift toward international, higher‑value multi‑year deals should support revenue durability and pricing as Gen‑3 capacity scales .
Trading setup: sentiment hinges on Q4 bookings/recognition timing; confirmation of large international wins and any EOCL funding restoration would be positive catalysts .

Appendix: Additional Source Details

Q3 results press release/8‑K with financials and backlog/cash details .
Q3 earnings call transcript with operational color, EOCL impact, and Q&A .
Contract win press release (> $30M tactical ISR integration) .
Prior quarters for trend: Q2 press release with updated FY25 guidance and backlog; Q1 press release with large bookings and India wins .

Note on estimates: All cells marked with an asterisk () reflect S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus/actuals delivered via the GetEstimates tool. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary